Daily Productive Sharing 1180 - The Economy of the Made
One helpful tip per day:)
How should we respond to the declining global birthrate driven by technological advancement? Kevin Kelly offers his thoughts:
- Global population will begin to decline in the coming decades, leading to fewer people contributing to the workforce and consuming goods.
- A key metric for measuring birth rates is the replacement fertility rate. If the total fertility rate falls below replacement level, the population will shrink over time as each generation fails to replace itself.
- Almost every country in the world is experiencing rapid modernization, and fertility rates are consistently declining. No country has successfully raised its fertility rate back above replacement level once it has fallen below.
- Even if we manage to slow the decline in fertility rates, humanity is entering an unprecedented era.
- The goal is to maintain a high quality of life and drive progress even as the population shrinks.
- The Economy of the Made will be driven by artificial intelligence, machine attention, synthetic labor, virtual demand, and manufactured desires.
- Initially, we may feel uneasy about the growing role of the The Economy of the Made, but we will soon realize that this vast economic foundation is designed to serve the relatively few humans who remain.
- If a task is primarily about productivity, it should not be done by humans.
- Humans should engage in work where efficiency is not the priority—art, exploration, invention, innovation, conversation, adventure, and companionship.
- We are not replacing existing humans with robots; we are compensating for those who were never born. Our relationship with synthetic intelligence and bionic entities will be highly reciprocal.
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面对全球技术下降的生育率，我们应该如何应对？Kevin Kelly 给出了他的猜想：
- 全球人口将在未来几十年内开始下降，之后，越来越少的人口将能够贡献劳动力并消费生产的商品；
- 衡量生育水平的关键指标是更替生育率。如果总生育率低于更替水平，那么随着时间推移，人口会减少，因为当前世代的人口数量不足以替代自身；
- 几乎世界上所有国家都在经历快速现代化，生育率也在单向下降。至今，没有任何一个国家在生育率跌破更替水平后，成功将其重新提升至更替水平以上；
- 即便我们能够减缓平均生育率的下降趋势，我们仍然正进入一个人类前所未有的全新局面；
- 我们希望在减少人口的同时，提高生活水平和推动进步；
- “制造者”的经济，即合成经济，则由人工智能、机器注意力、合成劳动力、虚拟需求和制造的欲望所驱动；
- 起初，我们可能会对合成经济占据越来越大的比例感到不适，但很快我们将意识到，这一庞大的经济基础正是为了服务相对少数仍然存在的人类；
- 如果某项工作重在生产力，那么它不应该由人来完成；
- 人类应该从事那些效率不重要的工作——艺术、探索、发明、创新、闲聊、冒险和陪伴，等等；
- 我们并不是用机器人取代已经存在的人类，而是用它们替代那些从未出生的人类，并且我们与这些合成智能体和仿生智能的关系将是高度互惠的。
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