4 min read DPS

Daily Productive Sharing 1183 - What to Expect in 2025

Daily Productive Sharing 1183 - What to Expect in 2025
Photo by Philipp Düsel / Unsplash

One helpful tip per day:)

What do 1996, 2009, and 2025 have in common? Fred Vogelstein and Om Malik believe that the first two marked pivotal moments of innovation— the internet and smartphones— and that 2025 happens to be two years after the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, potentially marking another transformative period:

  1. In 1994, Netscape launched the first mainstream web browser. In 2007, Apple introduced the iPhone. In 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, and now, just over two years later, we find ourselves at a similar juncture.
  2. We are currently at an inflection point in the innovation cycle. Looking back at the technological shifts of 1994 and 2007 can help us better understand the current moment.
  3. However, in the five years following both 1996 and 2007, subsequent technological revolutions reshaped Silicon Valley and had profound effects on business and society.
  4. Established tech giants such as Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—once disruptors themselves—now face the challenge of adapting or being left behind.
  5. The browser and smartphone revolutions were largely free from political interference, but the AI revolution is increasingly resembling the Cold War space race of the 1960s.
  6. During speculative bubbles— and AI is currently in one— a compelling concept alone can propel companies to success. But when the bubble bursts, the companies that truly survive will be those with the deepest understanding of the underlying technology.
  7. Historically, every technological revolution has both destroyed old jobs and created new ones.

If you enjoy today's sharing, why not subscribe

Need a superb CV, please try our CV Consultation

1996年，2009年与2025年有什么相似之处？ Fred Vogelstein 和 Om Malik 认为前两者是两次创新的拐点 -- 互联网和智能手机，而2025年恰好距离2022年底 ChatGPT 的发布也是两年之季：

  1. 1994 年，Netscape 推出了第一款主流互联网浏览器。2007 年，苹果发布了 iPhone。2022 年，刚刚过去两年多，OpenAI 发布了 ChatGPT；
  2. 目前，我们正处于创新周期的一个拐点，大约两年过去了。回顾 1994 年和 2007 年的创新周期，我们可以更好地理解当下的局势；
  3. 然而，1996 年和 2007 年之后的五年里，随之而来的技术革命重塑了硅谷，也深刻影响了商业和社会；
  4. 我们应该预见，像 Google、Apple、Amazon、Meta 和 Microsoft 这样的老牌科技巨头——曾经的颠覆者——现在必须奋力适应，否则就会被淘汰；
  5. 浏览器和智能手机的技术革命几乎没有受到政治干预，但 AI 革命已经越来越像 20 世纪 60 年代美苏太空竞赛的翻版；
  6. 在泡沫时期——而 AI 领域现在正处于泡沫之中——往往只需要一个概念就能让公司起飞。但当泡沫破裂时，真正能存活下来的公司是那些比任何人都更深入理解底层技术的企业；
  7. 历史上，每一次技术革命都摧毁了旧的工作岗位，同时也创造了新的岗位。

如果你喜欢的话，不妨直接订阅这份电子报 ⬇️

Dr Selfie

Dr Selfie