5 min read china

Daily Productive Sharing 1216 - American Disruption

Daily Productive Sharing 1216 - American Disruption
Photo by Winston Chen / Unsplash

One helpful tip per day:)

Ben Thompson uses disruption theory to explain the recent tariff war, drawing a parallel between how resource-limited newcomers can challenge dominant incumbents—and how misguided policies can unintentionally reinforce that dynamic:

  1. In the early days, chip assembly involved manually wiring semiconductors—a repetitive, labor-intensive job. In the U.S., this labor cost around $2.50/hour and was economically unsustainable. But wages in Hong Kong were one-tenth of that. Four years later, Texas Instruments opened a plant in Taiwan, where wages were $0.19/hour; two years after that, Fairchild Semiconductor built a plant in Singapore, paying $0.11/hour.
  2. This is why even software companies are harmed by tariffs: when complementary hardware gets more expensive, overall product adoption suffers.
  3. Thanks to automation, marginal manufacturing costs are declining. That’s why the U.S. continues to produce a large volume of manufactured goods—even as manufacturing jobs decrease.
  4. The new tariffs are too broad and poorly targeted. They don’t just reduce demand—they also hinder the development of alternative supply chains.
  5. Take the iPhone as an example: the value added during final assembly is just a few dollars. But Apple’s software, marketing, and distribution add hundreds in value. If you only look at trade flows—each imported iPhone counted as hundreds of dollars in trade deficit—you completely miss the actual value structure.
  6. One of the most absurd aspects of the policy is that the U.S. is taxing raw materials and components used in factory equipment—like CNC machines.
  7. Even worse, foreign competitors can access those same materials and parts at lower prices. So even if they’re taxed when selling into the U.S., their total production costs are still lower—undermining the whole idea of supporting American manufacturing.
  8. In the end, Web 3.0 is political—tariffs, supply chains, and policy decisions are shaping the next era of the internet and global competition.

If you enjoy today's sharing, why not subscribe

Need a superb CV, please try our CV Consultation

Ben Thompson 用颠覆理论来阐释最近的关税大战：一个资源较少的小公司，成功挑战了已经建立起来的大型企业。

  1. 最初，芯片组装需要人工将导线连接到半导体芯片上，这是一项劳动密集、重复枯燥的工作，而在美国，这种工人的时薪约为 2.50 美元，经济上难以维持；但香港的工资仅为其十分之一。四年后，德州仪器在台湾设厂，当地工资为每小时 0.19 美元；再过两年，仙童半导体在新加坡设厂，当地工资为 0.11 美元。
  2. 这就是为什么即使是软件公司，也会被关税伤害；因为配套产品更贵，意味着整体使用率降低。
  3. 由于自动化，许多产品的边际制造成本正在逐渐下降；这也是为什么即使制造业就业人数不断减少，美国仍然拥有相当大的制造业产出。
  4. 这些关税的规模太大，且缺乏针对性，结果既会摧毁需求，又会破坏发展替代供应链的能力。
  5. 回到 iPhone：最终组装的价值增量只有个位数美元；而苹果的软件、市场营销、渠道分发等带来的增值是数百美元。仅从贸易流的角度看——每台进口 iPhone 被视为数百美元的贸易逆差——完全掩盖了真实的价值结构。
  6. 在这些关税政策中，最荒谬的一点是：美国竟然对用于工厂设备（比如 CNC 数控机床）的原材料和零部件征税。
  7. 更严重的问题是：外国竞争对手可以以更低的价格获得这些原材料和零件。即使他们在进入美国市场时也被征收关税，但他们的产品制造成本将远低于美国公司，这完全违背了“支持购买美国产设备”的政策初衷。
  8. 互联网 3.0 是关于政治的。

如果你喜欢的话，不妨直接订阅这份电子报 ⬇️

Dr Selfie

Dr Selfie