Daily Productive Sharing 1265 - The Gentle Singularity

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Sam Altman says that, viewed from a wide-angle lens, ChatGPT now wields more “energy” than any individual in history:

1. Hundreds of millions of people rely on it every day. Even small gains in capability create huge benefits—while tiny errors, once amplified, can cause serious harm.
2. By the 2030s, “intelligence” and the energy to turn ideas into reality will be more abundant than ever, no longer scarce resources.
3. This is the usual rhythm of a “singularity”: a former miracle becomes ordinary, then turns into table stakes.
4. The economic value AI is already generating has set off a flywheel that drives compound growth in infrastructure.
5. As data-center production becomes highly automated, the cost of “intelligence” will eventually approach the cost of electricity itself.
6. A typical ChatGPT query consumes about 0.34 watt-hours of electricity and roughly 0.000085 gallons of water—about the power a home oven uses in one second, or one-fifteenth of a teaspoon of water.
7. A new “social contract” won’t appear overnight, but decades from now we’ll look back and see that gradual changes merged into a giant wave.
8. The entire industry—not just OpenAI—is building a “universal brain” for the world: highly personalized, available to everyone, with the real bottleneck being whether we have enough good ideas.
9. “Intelligence so cheap it isn’t metered” is close at hand; if, in 2020, someone had described today’s breakthroughs, it would have sounded more improbable than our current forecasts for 2030.

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Sam Altman 认为，从宏观视角来看，ChatGPT 的“能量”已超越历史上的任何个人：

1. 每天有数以亿计的用户依赖它办事——小幅能力提升能带来巨大益处，而微小偏差被放大后也可能造成严重负面影响。
2. 进入 2030 年代，“智能”和“实现想法的能量”将空前充裕，不再是稀缺资源。
3. 这正是“奇点”的惯常节奏：昔日奇迹先变日常，最终成门槛。
4. AI 产生的经济价值已启动一套正向飞轮，推动基础设施不断复利式扩建。
5. 随着数据中心生产被高度自动化，“智能”成本终会逼近“用电”成本本身。
6. 一次 ChatGPT 查询平均耗电约 0.34 瓦时、耗水约 0.000085 加仑——相当于烤箱一秒多的用电量，或一小茶勺的十五分之一水量。
7. 新的“社会契约”不会一蹴而就，但若干十年后回望，这些渐进改变将汇聚成巨浪。
8. 整个行业（不仅是 OpenAI）正在为世界打造一颗“通用大脑”——高度个性化、人人可用，真正的瓶颈是“好点子”是否足够。
9. “智能便宜到无需计量”近在咫尺；若在 2020 年告诉你今日之成就，听来恐怕比我们现在预测 2030 年还要离奇。

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