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In recent years, there has been an increasing trend of calm in the Middle East, such as the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Gulf states of Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The author analyzes the reasons behind these trends.
First, the U.S. partial withdrawal from Syria and Iraq, complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, and unwillingness to take on more security responsibilities together with the pivot to the Indo-Pacific have led regional actors to rethink the cost of geopolitical instability.
Second, in many conflict zones, stalemate has been the outcome.
Third, the region is experiencing ideological exhaustion, which in return has diminished the relevance and intensity of ideological battles that were prominent over the past decade.
Fourth, geopolitics and ideology have dominated the regional agenda over the last decade.
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