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Daily Productive Sharing 450 - A Local Optimal in Decision Making

Daily Productive Sharing 450 - A Local Optimal in Decision Making
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This is a very early post, Ben Kuhn attended a dinner party and found out that the participants basically all worked in the tech industry and he was surprised how he was surrounded by such friends. So he downloaded Bay Area employment data, and 10% of people under 35 with a bachelor's degree or higher were working in tech, and another 5% were working in industries with strong ties to tech. He reviewed his other circles and found that they were also basically all tech industry workers, so he wondered where the non-tech industry workers had gone. He guessed that it might be because of socioeconomic reasons that determine people's interests and circles, while some people in the comments pointed out that it might be because people in the tech industry have more time and energy to participate in these activities.

Being in the tech industry may not be the best option, but having choices is always better than not having choices, and when the tech industry provides us with the buffer to make more choices, maybe it is a local optimum. Just like when we plan immigration, it is the same decision-making process, if there is no way to get to the best country, there is a possibility to find a sub-optimal solution first, at least better than being trapped inside. If you get out first, at least you have a lot more options. The same reasoning applies to other decision making processes.

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这是一篇很早的帖子,Ben Kuhn 参加了一个晚宴,发现参与者基本都在科技行业工作,他很惊讶自己为什么身边都是这样的朋友。于是他下载了湾区的就业数据,35岁以下拥有学士学位以上学历的人里,有10%在科技业工作,还有5%在与科技业有紧密联系的行业工作。他回顾了自己其他的圈子,发现基本也都是科技业从业者,所以他很好奇,非科技业的从业者到哪去了?他猜可能是因为经济原因决定了大家的兴趣爱好和圈层,而评论里有人指出可能是因为科技业从业者有更多的时间精力参加这些活动。

在科技业从业并不一定是最优解,但是拥有选择永远优于没有选择,当科技业提供了我们做出更多选择的 buffer 时,也许这就是一个局部最优解。就像我们在考虑移民时,也是同样的决策过程,如果没有办法一步到位,有没有可能先找一个次优解,这样可以作为跳板,至少比困在里面没有办法好。先出来再说,至少出来之后的选择要多很多。同样的道理也适用于其他决策过程。

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