Daily Productive Sharing 517 - How to Decide Based on Probability?

Daily Productive Sharing 517 - How to Decide Based on Probability?
Photo by Jonathan Greenaway / Unsplash

One helpful tip per day:)

J.D. Roth shares how to make decisions based on possibilities:

  1. You do this by thinking in probabilities instead of in binary terms, where it’s an all-or-nothing proposition.
  2. A positive-expected-value decision is when you have a greater than 50% probability of your desired outcome coming true.
  3. The worst mistake you can make is not realizing when a good decision was mostly due to luck, not skill. Proper risk man agement is paramount.
  4. Jot your forecasts down to keep yourself honest. Then compare the outcome with your expectations and see what you go wrong and why.
  5. When you’re dead wrong, you must review the reasons why and learn from them.
  6. Never fail due to a lack of effort, because effort requires no skill.

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J.D. Roth 分享了如何基于概率做出决策:

  1. 你要做的是用概率而不是非黑即白来思考问题;
  2. 当你有大于50%的概率实现你所期望的结果时,就是一个正向期望值的决策。
  3. 最大错误恐怕是没有意识到一个好的决定主要是由于运气,而不是技巧。适当的风险管理是最重要的。
  4. 记录你的预测,并诚实面对。然后将结果与你的预期进行比较,看看你出了什么错,为什么会这样。
  5. 当你错得一塌糊涂时,你必须回顾其原因并从中吸取教训。
  6. 永远不要因为缺乏努力而失败,因为努力不需要技巧。

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