Daily Productive Sharing 601 - How to Deal With Uncertainty?

Daily Productive Sharing 601 - How to Deal With Uncertainty?
Photo by Philip Oroni / Unsplash

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Anne-Laure Le Cunff points out that uncertainty impacts our attention and affects our working memory. We can use Rumsfeld Matrix to reduce the impact of uncertainty and act accordingly:

  1. Known-Knowns are uncertainties that are known to us, and that we can plan for.
  2. Known-Unknowns are uncertainties that we know exist, but where we don’t have enough knowledge to make a plan.
  3. Unknown-Knowns are uncertainties that we’re not aware of but that we tacitly understand, which may lead to biases and assumptions in our decisions.
  4. Unknowns-Unknowns are uncertainties that we don’t know about.

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Anne-Laure Le Cunff 认为不确定性会破坏我们的注意力,占用我们的工作记忆。她指出 Rumsfeld Matrix 可以帮助我们缓解不确定性带来的问题。通过这一矩阵,我们可以把确定性和不确定性划分为四类,并依此来行动:

  1. 已知-已知:我们已知的不确定因素,我们可以对其进行计划。
  2. 已知-未知:我们知道存在的不确定因素,但我们没有足够的知识来制定计划。
  3. 未知-未知:我们不知道的不确定因素,但我们默默地了解,这可能导致我们的决策出现偏差和假设。
  4. 未知-未知:是我们不知道的不确定因素。

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