Daily Productive Sharing 974 - Insights from Two Fields

Daily Productive Sharing 974 - Insights from Two Fields
Photo by Wolfgang Hasselmann / Unsplash

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If a principle holds true in two different fields, is it particularly useful? Morgan Housel believes this is indeed the case:

  1. Fish that grow slowly at first tend to live longer, and the same applies to businesses;
  2. The second law of thermodynamics can explain why entering an industry filled with geniuses involves a lot of competition, but entering a field with few geniuses makes it easier to achieve success;
  3. The Tocqueville Paradox can be used to explain why people's expectations grow faster than their living standards, leading to more unhappiness in affluent societies;
  4. Cromwell's Rule in statistics tells us to never say that something is impossible, because even the smallest probability, given enough time, can occur.

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如果一个道理在两个不同领域都成立,那么这样的道理是不是尤为有用? Morgan Housel 认为这是肯定的:

  1. 一开始生长比较慢的鱼反而活得时间更长,做企业也是这样;
  2. 热力学第二定律可以解释为什么进入一个天才云集的行业会有很多竞争,但是进入一个没有什么天才的领域更容易做出成绩;
  3. 托克维尔悖论 (Tocqueville Paradox) 可以用来解释人们的预期增长得比他们的生活水平快,所以富裕社会里有更多不开心的人;
  4. 统计学里的克伦威尔定律 (Cromwell’s rule) 告诉我们永远不要说什么不可能发生,因为再小的概率放到足够长的时间维度里,也有发生的概率。

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