DPS 周刊 186 - DeepSeek 创始人的偶像 - Jim Simons

DPS 周刊 186 - DeepSeek 创始人的偶像 - Jim Simons
Photo by Daniel J. Schwarz / Unsplash

时值 DeepSeek 大放异彩之时,它背后的公司其实是一家量化基金公司幻方量化。而他的创始人梁文锋曾经视文艺复兴基金的创始人 Jim Simons 为偶像,也为他的传记 The Man Who Solved the Market 的中文版作序。

早在2019年我就把这本书列入想读清单里,直到最近才把它读完。读完只有一个感想:天才到哪都是天才,天才到哪都能吸引天才。

他与 Elwyn Berlekamp 的合作:

Working with Elwyn Berlekamp, a game theorist, Simons built a computer model capable of digesting torrents of data and selecting ideal trades, a scientific and systematic approach partly aimed at removing emotion from the investment process.
Simons invited Berlekamp to fly to Huntington Beach a couple times a month to learn to trade for himself and see if his expertise in statistical information theory might be useful to Axcom.
If Simons wants you to work for us, he’ll have to pay for you,” Ax told Berlekamp by way of introduction. “I know I’m not.”
The system Berlekamp, Straus, and Laufer developed spotted barely perceptible patterns in various markets that had no apparent explanation.

与 Lenny Baum 的合作:

“One day in 1977, Simons reached out to Baum, asking if he would spend a day at Monemetrics’ office on Long Island helping Simons set up a trading system to speculate on currencies.”
“When Simons and Baum developed their hypothetical trading model at the IDA, they, too, had described the market as a Markov-like process.”
“Once I got Lenny involved, I could see the possibilities of building models,” Simons later said.

与 James Ax 的合作:

“Early on, Simons targeted a Cornell University mathematician named James Ax, who, a year earlier, had won the prestigious Cole Prize in number theory.”
“To make sure he and Baum were on the right track, Simons asked James Ax, his prized recruit at Stony Brook, to come by and check out their strategies.”
“Ax and Straus established a new company called Axcom Limited.”

James Ax 也不是等闲之辈,早年发现了 Ax-Kochen 定理。他曾经一度帮助 Jim Simmons 投资。后期退出之后,跑去找老同事 Simon Kochen 合作,然后发了一篇量子力学的论文。

Jim Simons 和华人学者真是有不解之缘:

  1. 去 SUNY 组建数学系之前,物理系刚刚由杨振宁组建;
  2. 组建数学系的时候大肆招募人才,甚至找到了丘成桐当助理教授,不过却没给丘 tenure,导致丘后来跳去了斯坦福
  3. 早年想从师陈省身未果,但是1974年和陈省身合著论文,发现了 Chern-Simons form。
When Simons returned to MIT to begin his graduate studies, his advisor suggested he finish his PhD at the University of California, Berkeley, so he could work with a professor named Shiing-Shen Chern, a former math prodigy from China and a leading differential geometer and topologist.
In 1974, Chern and Simons published ‘Characteristic Forms and
Geometric Invariants,’ a paper that introduced Chern-Simons invariants—an invariant is a property that remains unchanged, even while undergoing particular kinds of transformations—which proved useful in various areas of mathematics.
In 1976, at the age of thirty-seven, Simons was awarded the American Mathematical Society’s Oswald Veblen Prize in Geometry, the highest honor in the field, for his work with Chern and his earlier research in minimal varieties.

Recap

Herman Martinus 回顾最近一次修复网站时的经历,发现没有音乐没有播客的他,可以和自己安静地相处:

  1. 就像在洗澡时,我们经常思绪迸发一样,我们在独处时,可以与自己对话;
  2. 这种对话让我们解决复杂问题,促进自我实现并产生有意义的思想;
  3. 所以我们不妨多尝试与自己独处,放下手机,关掉音乐。
Daily Productive Sharing 1176 - Silence
One helpful tip per day:) Herman Martinus reflected on his recent experience fixing a website and realized that without music or podcasts, he was able to be at peace with himself: 1. Just like how we often have bursts of thoughts while showering, being alone allows us to have conversations

我们离通用人工智能有多远?Sam Altman 给出了他的设想:

  1. 一个 AI 模型的智能水平大致等于其训练和运行所使用资源的对数;
  2. 目前来看,只要投入足够的资金,就能获得持续且可预测的增长——相关的扩展定律在多个数量级范围内都非常准确;
  3. AI 的使用成本大约每 12 个月下降 10 倍,而价格降低会带来更多的使用需求;
  4. 一趋势在 GPT-4(2023 年初)到 GPT-4o(2024 年中)之间已经显现出来,其每个 token 的价格在此期间下降了约 150 倍;
  5. 线性增长的智能,其社会经济价值呈超指数级增长;
  6. AGI 不会创造最伟大的新思想,它仍然需要大量的人类监督和指导,它在某些方面表现卓越,但在某些方面却可能出奇地糟糕;
  7. 世界不会一夜之间发生翻天覆地的变化,历史从未如此。短期内,生活大体上会保持不变;
  8. AGI 让个人比以往任何时候都更具影响力,而不是削弱个体的作用;
  9. 确保 AGI 的利益能够广泛惠及所有人是至关重要的任务。
Daily Productive Sharing 1177 - How Far Is AGI?
One helpful tip per day:) How far are we from achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)? Sam Altman shared his perspective: 1. The intelligence level of an AI model is roughly proportional to the logarithm of the resources used for its training and operation. 2. Currently, as long as enough funding

面对疯狂的 Trump 上台,Ryan Holiday 问自己接下来四年应该怎么办?他的答案是做自己能做的事:

  1. 专注于自己能掌控的事情。
  2. 阅读经典书籍,而不关注新闻。
  3. 时刻提醒自己我的职责是什么。
  4. 关注那些始终不变的事物。
  5. 善待他人。
  6. 拒绝变得愤世嫉俗。
  7. 专注于自己的专业领域。
  8. 在挑战困难的事情。
Daily Productive Sharing 1178 - How I’m Preparing For The Next Four Years
One helpful tip per day:) Facing the chaotic return of Trump to office, Ryan Holiday asks himself what he could do for the next four years. His answer is to focus on what he can control: 1. I’m focusing on what I can control. 2. I’m reading old

为何中国这几年的手机,电动车等行业突飞猛进?Kyle Chan 认为这是产业集聚效应所致:

  1. 中国在多个相互重叠的产业中的实力,为其产业政策带来了复合效应。
  2. 如果一个国家在多个相互重叠的产业中已经具备竞争优势,这些产业之间会形成相互强化的反馈循环,从而进一步巩固其在所有相关产业中的领先地位。
  3. 拥有本土的上游供应商,使得企业能够更便捷地获取零部件,并直接与供应商合作,调整产品规格以满足行业需求。
  4. 本土下游产业的现有客户群能够提供稳定的市场需求和行业收入来源。
  5. 在某个行业的研发和制造技术投资,往往可以在其他相关产业中获得回报。
  6. 如果某种产品是多个行业的关键投入品,那么这些行业的本土化发展将有助于该产品实现更大的规模经济效应。
  7. 除了锂电池产业外,中国的智能手机及更广泛的消费电子行业,还为中国电动汽车制造商提供了供应链支持及技术经验,例如触摸屏显示、电子控制系统及其他相关电子硬件。
  8. 作为全球最大的钢铁、铝、石化产品及其他工业原材料生产国,中国拥有大量本土企业,能够为电动汽车产业提供关键投入品。
  9. 在许多情况下,出现了我称之为“产业共进”的现象,即两个或多个相关产业通过迭代和双向互动的方式共同发展。
  10. 最后,中国在多个科技-工业生态系统中持续增强竞争力的部分原因在于,这些领域正在逐步融合。
Daily Productive Sharing 1179 - Industrial Coevolution
One helpful tip per day:) 1. China’s strength across multiple overlapping industries creates a compounding effect for its industrial policy efforts. 2. If you’re already strong in multiple overlapping industries, then this creates a mutually reinforcing feedback loop that further strengthens your position in all of these connected

面对全球技术下降的生育率,我们应该如何应对?Kevin Kelly 给出了他的猜想:

  1. 全球人口将在未来几十年内开始下降,之后,越来越少的人口将能够贡献劳动力并消费生产的商品;
  2. 衡量生育水平的关键指标是更替生育率。如果总生育率低于更替水平,那么随着时间推移,人口会减少,因为当前世代的人口数量不足以替代自身;
  3. 几乎世界上所有国家都在经历快速现代化,生育率也在单向下降。至今,没有任何一个国家在生育率跌破更替水平后,成功将其重新提升至更替水平以上;
  4. 即便我们能够减缓平均生育率的下降趋势,我们仍然正进入一个人类前所未有的全新局面;
  5. 我们希望在减少人口的同时,提高生活水平和推动进步;
  6. “制造者”的经济,即合成经济,则由人工智能、机器注意力、合成劳动力、虚拟需求和制造的欲望所驱动;
  7. 起初,我们可能会对合成经济占据越来越大的比例感到不适,但很快我们将意识到,这一庞大的经济基础正是为了服务相对少数仍然存在的人类;
  8. 如果某项工作重在生产力,那么它不应该由人来完成;
  9. 人类应该从事那些效率不重要的工作——艺术、探索、发明、创新、闲聊、冒险和陪伴,等等;
  10. 我们并不是用机器人取代已经存在的人类,而是用它们替代那些从未出生的人类,并且我们与这些合成智能体和仿生智能的关系将是高度互惠的。
Daily Productive Sharing 1180 - The Economy of the Made
One helpful tip per day:) How should we respond to the declining global birthrate driven by technological advancement? Kevin Kelly offers his thoughts: 1. Global population will begin to decline in the coming decades, leading to fewer people contributing to the workforce and consuming goods. 2. A key metric for

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