(The English version follows)
软件开发在宏观经济中的贡献越来越大。a16z 的联合创始人 Marc Andreessen 早在十年前就预言 -- Software Is Eating the World。所以了解开发者的流向有助于我们了解经济全球化的发展趋势。
在过去的五年间，中国和印度在 GitHub 上的开发者数量已经超越德国和英国，名列二三；而且比例增长最快的国家都来自亚非拉。这两个数据说明，越来越多的开发者来自新兴国家，而且这一趋势会越来越快。照这样下去，不仅新兴国家的互联网/软件产业会更加迅猛地发展，同时也可以为其他成熟国家提供了大量人才。
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Software development is a growing contributor to the macro economy. a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen predicted a decade ago - [Software Is Eating the World](https://a16z.com/2011/08/20/why-software- is-eating-the-world/). So understanding the flow of developers helps us to understand the trends of economic globalization.
In the last five years, China and India have overtaken Germany and the UK in the number of developers on GitHub, and the fastest growing proportion of countries are from Asia, Africa and Latin America. These two figures show that more and more developers are coming from emerging countries, and this trend is set to grow faster and faster. At this rate, not only will the internet/software industry in emerging countries grow more rapidly, but it will also provide a large pool of talent for other established countries.
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There are currently 56 million developers on GitHub, the world’s dominant developer collaboration platform, according to its own “2020 State of the Octoverse” report.
GitHub predicts having 100 million developers on its platform by 2025, so we are looking at an almost doubling of the number of developers in the next five years.
What’s more interesting to me is that the fastest growing developer clusters are coming from Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
Looking into GitHub’s “crystal ball,” by 2025, the US’s open source contribution is expected to decrease and stabilize to around 16.4%. China’s share will continue to increase to 13.3%, India’s to 7.9%, while Brazil and Nigeria may register 3% and 1.5% respectively.
I see the emerging market developers’ impact falling into three buckets in the next 10 years: outsourcing outposts, building domestic markets, founding global-scale startups.