Daily Productive Sharing 145 - How Will the Next Decade Be?

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(The English version follows)


这是一篇十年前的文章,十年之后的今天再来读它,也许我们会深深佩服投资人 Marc Andreessen 的眼界。早在十年前,他就预见到世界将被软件所改变,十年后的今天,这些变化确确实实发生在我们身边。 比如十年前,软件还未曾改变医疗和教育这两个行业。而今天,这两个行业都被软件彻底改变,比如晶泰科技直接使用高性能计算支持早期药物发现与筛选,大大降低了新药的研发时间和成本,比如 Khan Academy 之类的 MOOC 平台大大降低了优质教育的门槛。




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This is an article from ten years ago, and when we read it ten years later, we may be impressed by the vision of the investor Marc Andreessen. Ten years ago, he predicted that the world would be changed by software, and now, ten years later, these changes are actually happening around us. Ten years ago, for example, software had not yet changed the healthcare and education industries. Today, both industries have been revolutionised by software, such as XtalPi's direct use of high performance computing to support early drug discovery and screening, which has greatly reduced the time and cost of developing new drugs, and MOOC platforms such as Khan Academy have significantly lowered the bar for quality education.

How will the next decade be? Let's wait and see.

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Today’s stock market actually hates technology, as shown by all-time low price/earnings ratios for major public technology companies.

My own theory is that we are in the middle of a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of the economy.

Over the next 10 years, I expect many more industries to be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.

In 2000, when my partner Ben Horowitz was CEO of the first cloud computing company, Loudcloud, the cost of a customer running a basic Internet application was approximately $150,000 a month. Running that same application today in Amazon’s cloud costs about $1,500 a month.

With lower start-up costs and a vastly expanded market for online services, the result is a global economy that for the first time will be fully digitally wired — the dream of every cyber-visionary of the early 1990s, finally delivered, a full generation later.

Now even the books themselves are software.

Companies like Shutterfly, Snapfish and Flickr have stepped into Kodak’s place.

Health care and education, in my view, are next up for fundamental software-based transformation.

And when the economy finally stabilizes, look out — the best of the new companies will grow even faster.

Instead of constantly questioning their valuations, let’s seek to understand how the new generation of technology companies are doing what they do, what the broader consequences are for businesses and the economy and what we can collectively do to expand the number of innovative new software companies created in the U.S. and around the world.