Daily Productive Sharing 190 - Four Predictions About Future By Tim O'Reilly
(The English version follows)
#Misc
大家熟知的动物书是出版商 O'Reilly 多年经营的编程类书籍，这家出版商的名字取自老板 Tim O'Reilly 的姓氏。而 Tim 本身也是一位极为出色的作者，他曾经在2017年写过一本简称为 WTF 的书 -- WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us，在这本书中，他大胆地预测了未来。今天的分享其实是这本书的一个更新，Tim 提出了四个新的预测：
Prediction: The nexus of machine learning and medicine, biology, and materials science will be to the coming decades what Silicon Valley has been to the late 20th and early 21st century.
Prediction: Because platform businesses have failed to regulate themselves, they will have limits placed on their potential for good as well as harm.
Prediction: There will be more climate billionaires created in the next two decades than in the internet boom.
Prediction: When the bubble ends, greater opportunities will remain.
他特别强调了气候变化的影响，以及我们可以做什么。这些可以和 Biil Gates 的 How to Avoid A Climate Disaster? 这本书结合起来一起看。
- Electrifying everything requires only half as much energy as our current system.
- We need to reconceive solar panels, batteries, electric cars, and electric appliances as part of our national energy infrastructure, even when they are on or in people’s homes, rather than thinking of infrastructure as something owned only by utilities or the government.
- Markets won’t move fast enough without a World War II-style mobilization of private industry.
- Electrifying the US will create jobs—lots of them.
- Who gets the financial benefit of this massive investment—utilities, solar installers, or consumers—depends on interest rates.
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原链
The End of Silicon Valley as We Know It?
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'Animal Books' is a series of programming book that have been run for many years by publisher O'Reilly, a publisher named after owner Tim O'Reilly. Tim himself is an excellent author, having written a book in 2017 simply called WTF - WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us, in which he boldly predicts the future. Today's sharing is actually an update of that book, with Tim making four new predictions:
Prediction: The nexus of machine learning and medicine, biology, and materials science will be to the coming decades what Silicon Valley has been to the late 20th and early 21st century.
Prediction: Because platform businesses have failed to regulate themselves, they will have limits placed on their potential for good as well as harm.
Prediction: There will be more climate billionaires created in the next two decades than in the internet boom.
Prediction: When the bubble ends, greater opportunities will remain.)
In particular, he highlights the impact of climate change and what we can do about it. These can be read in conjunction with Biil Gates' book How to Avoid A Climate Disaster??
- Electrifying everything requires only half as much energy as our current system.
- We need to reconceive solar panels, batteries, electric cars, and electric appliances as part of our national energy infrastructure, even when they are on or in people’s homes, rather than thinking of infrastructure as something owned only by utilities or the government.
- Markets won’t move fast enough without a World War II-style mobilization of private industry.
- Electrifying the US will create jobs—lots of them.
- Who gets the financial benefit of this massive investment—utilities, solar installers, or consumers—depends on interest rates.
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Link
The End of Silicon Valley as We Know It?
Try our sustainable productivity tool BRNR List
Excerpt
Understanding four trends that may shape the future of Silicon Valley is also a road map to some of the biggest technology-enabled opportunities of the next decades
The best way to predict the future is to invent it
the inventions we most urgently need will take us in a very different direction than the consumer internet and social media revolution that is coming to an unsightly end.
And mRNA vaccines are also easily tweaked, raising the possibility of even quicker response to mutations, and even the creation of a framework for rapid development of many more vaccines.
Yes, machine learning, statistical analysis, and programming are all needed, but so is deep knowledge of relevant science.
Many Silicon Valley investors have been lucky rather than smart.
but the regulatory responses will be insufficient if they are based on old theories, old understandings that the platforms have already outstripped.
The US theory of antitrust has largely been based on the question of consumer harm, which is difficult to prove in marketplaces where services are provided to consumers at zero cost and where the marginal cost of experimenting on those consumers is also close to zero.
Markets are ecosystems, and like other ecosystems, there are hidden dependencies everywhere.
The generosity of open source software and the World Wide Web, the genius of algorithmically amplified collective intelligence are still there, pointing the way to the Next Economy, but it is an economy we must actively choose, rather than riding the rails of a system that is taking us in the wrong direction.
The difference between theory and practice is always greater in practice than it is in theory
The initial genius of Google was to run the market coordinated by collective intelligence (organic search) and the market coordinated by money (pay per click advertising) in parallel.
when producers with economic motivations manipulated organic search results for profit but to the detriment of Google’s users, producing pages that satisfied the algorithms but failed to satisfy consumers, Google was ruthless in updating the algorithms to focus on consumer benefit.
Google economists have told me that only six percent of Google search result pages carry any advertising at all.
Unlike Google, Amazon has always used price as an important signal in its search rankings, but price was intelligently combined with measures of collective opinion—what other consumers thought was the best product—to create a market that was more efficient than any previous consumer goods marketplace.
Silicon Valley is a mirror of what is wrong with our economy and corporate governance, not the cause of it, or even the worst exemplar.
The big platforms must understand their social responsibility to create more value than they capture, focus their algorithmic systems on improving human welfare, find ways to measure and communicate the value that they create, and help our broader society to better “model and manage complex interacting systems.”
Make a real difference in people’s lives. You will know you have done that when operating profits fairly earned, not stock market gains, are your measure of investment success.
There is a robust strategy for investors and entrepreneurs: Work on stuff that matters. Invest in solving problems.
The path to high returns may take longer, but the need is real, and so is the value created.
Direct electrification of as much of our economy as possible is not only achievable but also the fastest way to avert climate disaster.
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