DPS 周刊 127 - Same as Ever

DPS 周刊 127 - Same as Ever
Photo by eberhard 🖐 grossgasteiger / Unsplash

Morgan Housel 的文章简明易懂,直中要害。我们已经分享了二十多篇,比如

Daily Productive Sharing 263 -- What is Ultimate Wealth?
One helpful tip per day:) (The English version follows) #Misc What is ultimate wealth? Is it having countless amounts of money? Morgan Housel gives his answer: 1. to be able to control one’s own time. 2. money becomes like oxygen: being abundant without having to worry about its existence. 3.
Daily Productive Sharing 274 - How to Lower Your Expectation?
One helpful tip per day:) (下附中文版) #work #finance Many posts about FIRE have written about how much wealth they already have and are still afraid to FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early). The fundamental problem here might be the high expectations. Morgan Housel gave his own advice about expectation: 1. don’t
Daily Productive Sharing 383 - Why Does Everything Look Better From the Outside?
One helpful tip per day:) (下附中文版) #mindset Morgan Housel explains why almost everything looks better from the outside: 1. everything is essentially selling, so people try to create a good image, and what others initially see is only a filter, not the whole. 2. only when we look deeper can

最近 Morgan 出了新书 Same as Ever,这本书其实是从他的的文章 A Few Good Stories 展开的。在这篇文章中,他引用了巴菲特的故事:


这篇文章的线上版本已经删去了这一故事,不过我们在 DPS 598 中有摘录:

Daily Productive Sharing 598 - Unchanged
One helpful tip per day:) When Warren Buffett was asked when the economy would recover. Buffett asked in return, what was the best-selling candy in 1962 and now? The answer is same -- Snickers. In his view, it is far more important to focus on what is less likely to

Same as Ever 就是这么一本书,梳理了很多长久不变却被我们忽视的道理。比如对于历史的解读,人们往往只看到结果,却无法追溯他们的起因:

An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began.
Ignoring that family tree can muddy your understanding of events, giving a false impression of why things happened, how long they might last, and under what circumstances they might occur again.


The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming, because if no one sees it coming, no one’s prepared for it; and if no one’s prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives.
That’s the real definition of risk—what’s left over after you’ve prepared for the risks you can imagine.
Risk is what you don’t see.
The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events are always what you don’t see coming.
Invest in preparedness, not in prediction.
It’s better to have expectations that risk will arrive, though you don’t know when or where, than to rely exclusively on forecasts
Two, realize that if you’re only preparing for the risks you can envision, you’ll be unprepared for the risks you can’t see every single time.

Morgan 认为预期才是真正决定我们是否快乐的因素,只要预期够低,就很容易变得快乐。

Your happiness depends on your expectations more than anything else.
Montesquieu wrote 275 years ago, “If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are.”
People gauge their well-being relative to those around them, and luxuries become necessities in a remarkably short period of time when the people around you become better off.
Everything is relative, and mostly relative to those around you.
Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough.
We might have higher incomes, more wealth, and bigger homes—but it’s all so quickly smothered by inflated expectations.
Part of the reason, I’ve come to believe, is that expectations for Truman’s abilities were so low that any leadership qualities he exhibited blew people’s minds. A little success was a win; a big success felt like a miracle.
The first rule of a happy life is low expectations.
My friend Brent has a related theory about marriage: It only works when both people want to help their spouse while expecting nothing in return. If you both do that, you’re both pleasantly surprised.
One is the constant reminder that wealth and happiness is a two-part equation: what you have and what you expect/need.

至于天才,Morgan 认为独特的个性是他们成功密不可分的一部分,所以我们要么全盘接受,要么就毫不买账。

People who think about the world in unique ways you like almost certainly also think about the world in unique ways you won’t like.
The key thing is that unique minds have to be accepted as a full package, because the things they do well and that we admire cannot be separated from the things we wouldn’t want for ourselves or we look down upon.
Boyd realized there was a tactical advantage not in how fast or high a plane could fly, but how quickly it could change course and begin climbing—a discovery that altered not only how pilots thought but how planes were built.
Part of this idea is realizing that people who are capable of achieving incredible things often take risks that can backfire just as powerfully.


A common trait of human behavior is the burning desire for certainty despite living in an uncertain and probabilistic world.
The core here is that people think they want an accurate view of the future, but what they really crave is certainty.
A related and equally important problem here is how easy it is to underestimate rare events in a world as large as ours.
If one person plays the lottery, the odds of picking the winning numbers twice are indeed 1 in 17 trillion. But if one hundred million people play the lottery week after week—which is the case in America—the odds that someone will win twice are actually quite good. Diaconis and Mosteller figured it was 1 in 30.
There are about eight billion people on this planet. So if an event has a one-in-a-million chance of occurring every day, it should happen to eight thousand people a day, or 2.9 million times a year, and maybe a quarter of a billion times during your lifetime.
People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty.

Morgan 本人就是一位讲故事的大师,而他也一再强调讲故事的能力:

If you have the right answer and you’re a good storyteller, you’ll almost certainly get ahead.
Good stories tend to do that. They have extraordinary ability to inspire and evoke positive emotions, bringing insight and attention to topics that people tend to ignore when they’ve previously been presented with nothing but facts.
What Sapiens does have is excellent writing. Beautiful writing. The stories are captivating, the flow is effortless. Harari took what was already known and wrote it better than anyone had done before. The result was fame greater than anyone before him could imagine. Best story wins.
The valuation of every company is simply a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.
The most persuasive stories are about what you want to believe is true, or are an extension of what you’ve experienced firsthand.
Good stories create so much hidden opportunity among things you assume can’t be improved.
Who has the right answer, but I ignore because they’re inarticulate? And what do I believe is true but is actually just good marketing?



Most great things in life—from love to careers to investing—gain their value from two things: patience and scarcity. Patience to let something grow, and scarcity to admire what it grows into.
Stress, pain, discomfort, shock, and disgust—for all its tragic downsides, it’s also when the magic happens.
New technologies take years or decades for people to even notice, then years or decades more for people to accept and put to use.
Progress always takes time, often too much time to even notice it’s happened.
Growth always fights against competition that slows its rise.
Making a human: incomprehensibly complex. The death of a human: really simple.
A lot of progress and good news concerns things that didn’t happen, whereas virtually all bad news is about what did occur.
It is so easy to discount how much progress is achievable.
Most catastrophes come from a series of tiny risks—each of which is easy to ignore—that multiply and compound into something huge.
So the small bombs increased the odds of the big bombs being used.
Small risks weren’t the alternative to big risks; they were the trigger.
Big risks are easy to overlook because they’re just a chain reaction of small events, each of which is easy to shrug off.
Little changes compounded for a long time create extraordinary changes.
Optimism and pessimism are so hard to deal with. Pessimism is more intellectually seductive than optimism and captures more of our attention. It’s vital for survival, helping us prepare for risks before they arrive.
A big thing to know about how people think is that progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist.
The best financial plan is to save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist.
Things will eventually get better. But we’re not going home by Christmas.
You could tell three things about Bill Gates pretty quickly. He was really smart. He was really competitive; he wanted to show you how smart he was. And he was really, really persistent. From the day he started Microsoft, he insisted on always having enough cash in the bank to keep the company alive for twelve months with no revenue coming in.
What Gates seems to get is that you can only be an optimist in the long run if you’re pessimistic enough to survive the short run.
The trick in any field—from finance to careers to relationships—is being able to survive the short-run problems so you can stick around long enough to enjoy the long-term growth.
The key thing about evolution is that everything dies.
The best any species can do is to be good at some things until the things it’s not good at suddenly matter more. And then it dies.
A species that evolves to become very good at one thing tends to become vulnerable at another.
Perfecting one skill comes at the expense of another skill that will eventually be critical to survival.
Big innovations don’t come at once, but rather are built up slowly when several small innovations are combined over time.


The irony is that people can get some of their most important work done outside of work, when they’re free to think and ponder.
Room for error is often viewed as a cost, an anchor, an inefficiency. But in the long run it can have some of the highest payoffs imaginable.
Cash is an inefficient drag during bull markets and as valuable as oxygen during bear markets.
This is one of the most useful life skills—enduring the pain when necessary rather than assuming there’s a hack, or a shortcut, around it.
Every job comes with pieces you don’t like. And we need to say: That’s part of it.
Most things worth pursuing charge their fee in the form of stress, uncertainty, dealing with quirky people, bureaucracy, other peoples’ conflicting incentives, hassle, nonsense, long hours, and constant doubt. That’s the overhead cost of getting ahead.
Every industry and career is different, but there’s universal value in accepting hassle when reality demands it.
All of them are bad. But all have to be endured to some degree if you want to get anything done.
The most dominant creatures tend to be huge, but the most enduring tend to be smaller. T-Rex < cockroach < bacteria.
What’s incredible about this is that evolution encourages you to get bigger, then punishes you for being big.
The only thing harder than gaining a competitive edge is not losing an advantage when you have one.
Evolution is ruthless and unforgiving—it doesn’t teach by showing you what works but by destroying what doesn’t.
Another takeaway is to keep running. No competitive advantage is so powerful that it can let you rest on your laurels—and in fact the ones that appear to do so tend to seed their own demise.


The sore truth is that complexity sells better.
Primitive animals often had many duplicate body parts, then evolution reduced the number but increased their usefulness.
The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.
Complexity gives a comforting impression of control, while simplicity is hard to distinguish from cluelessness.
Things you don’t understand create a mystique around people who do.
When you understand things I don’t, I have a hard time judging the limits of your knowledge in that field, which makes me more prone to taking your views at face value.
Length is often the only thing that can signal effort and thoughtfulness.
Simplicity feels like an easy walk. Complexity feels like a mental marathon.
An effective rule of thumb doesn’t bypass complexity; it wraps things you don’t understand into things you do.



  1. 法国工作申请
  2. 法国留学申请
  3. 法国入籍申请
  4. 法国生活简介



AwesomeVisa Workshop 02 - 润向法国 🇫🇷
12月17日晚上九点,我们将邀请获得了法国护照的小菜。小菜曾经在法国攻读葡萄酒和烈酒管理研究生,毕业后又在法国工作了一段时间。在此期间,选择加入了法国国籍。他将分享: 1. 法国工作申请 2. 法国留学申请 3. 法国入籍申请 4. 法国生活简介 讲座预计一小时,前面45分钟由嘉宾分享,剩余时间是问答环节。 AwesomeVisa Workshop 已经讨论了移民瑞典和德国的点点滴滴,可以参考这里: AwesomeVisa WorkshopsAwesomeVisa Workshop 00 - 润向瑞典🇸🇪 AwesomeVisa Workshop 00 - 润向瑞典🇸🇪11月19日晚上九点,我们将邀请在瑞典获得博士的 Aurelie 来分享: 1. 瑞典留学申请 2. 瑞典学签/工签政策 3. 瑞典生活简介 4. 北欧迷思祛魅 免费注册即可获得会议链接 会议链接见下AwesomeVisa ExodusDr Selfie

加拿大一直是移民的热门选项,其中的 Express Entry 项目的打分水涨船高,每一次邀请都创造新高。最新一轮的打分已经达到了561分,要知道满分才600分。EE 这个项目固然好,只是现在这样非要拼个头破血流才有可能拿到的情形下,再去争取是否还值得呢?


Exodus 3.23 - 人生的可能性
请让我们用脚投票 加拿大一直是移民的热门选项,其中的 Express Entry 项目的打分水涨船高,每一次邀请都创造新高。最新一轮的打分已经达到了561分,要知道满分才600分。EE 这个项目固然好,只是现在这样非要拼个头破血流才有可能拿到的情形下,再去争取是否还值得呢? 同样的,我们从小到大的人生似乎都是一个模子里出来的:小学要考高分才能进好的初中,中考考了高分才能进高中,高考考了高分才能进好大学,考研考了高分才能读研,更不用说后面的考博,之后的找工作。似乎只有照着这个模版成长才是成功的人生。可是真的如此吗? 12月17日晚上九点,我们将邀请获得了法国护照的小菜。小菜曾经在法国攻读葡萄酒和烈酒管理研究生,毕业后又在法国工作了一段时间。在此期间,选择加入了法国国籍。他将分享: 1. 法国工作申请 2. 法国留学申请 3. 法国入籍申请 4. 法国生活简介 AwesomeVisa Workshop 02 - 润向法国 🇫🇷12月17日晚上九点,我们将邀请获得了法国护照的小菜。小菜曾经在法国攻读葡萄酒和烈酒管理研究生,毕业后又在法国工作了一段时间。在此期间,选择加入

Anne-Laure Le Cunff 建议我们专注在高杠杆的任务上:

  1. 高杠杆的任务并不等于辛苦的任务,相反,高杠杆的任务可以利用较少的精力和时间产生很大的影响;
  2. 通过这样的专注,你可以有更多时间来关注生活中其他重要的事物;
  3. 专注高杠杆任务的第一步是统计你每天的时间分布;
  4. 第二步是专注只能你做的事物;
  5. 每天专注的高杠杆事物不要超过两三项;
  6. 多花时间在自己身上,在自己的成长上,在可以产生复利的事物上。
Daily Productive Sharing 866 - High-leverage activities
One helpful tip per day:) Anne-Laure Le Cunff recommends focusing on high-leverage tasks: 1. High-leverage tasks are not necessarily hard tasks; instead, they are tasks that yield significant impact with less energy and time. 2. Focusing this way allows you more time for other important aspects of your life. 3.

Seth Godin 指出别人和你有相同的点子其实是件好事:

  1. 你其实无法确认这个点子是从你这抄袭过去的,也许他们也正好下扛到了这一点;
  2. 如果其他人也想到了这一点,正好验证了你的想法;
  3. 而且当它们被其他人发出来,其实有助于这一点子的传播;
  4. 如果有很多人都有相似的想法,正好说明你其实正在风口上。
Daily Productive Sharing 867 - Copying Ideas?
One helpful tip per day:) Seth Godin highlights the positive aspect of others having the same idea as you: 1. It’s not always clear if your idea was copied; others might have independently arrived at the same thought. 2. Others thinking of the same idea validates your concept. 3. When

Morgan Housel 分析了节俭和独立的区别:

  1. 两者的根本区别在于如何使用财富。前者可以为了财富而剥夺自己的快乐,而后者可以为了快乐而运用财富;
  2. 有些人为了财富,愿意牺牲快乐;
  3. 有些人为了快乐,愿意牺牲财富。
Daily Productive Sharing 868 - Frugal vs. Independent
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel analyzes the difference between frugality and independence: 1. The fundamental difference between the two lies in how wealth is utilized. The former may deprive oneself of happiness for the sake of wealth, while the latter uses wealth to pursue happiness. 2. Some people

Greg Brockman 分享了他学习机器学习的经历:

  1. 作为 Stripe 的前 CTO,OpenAI 的创始人之一,他的编程能力毋庸置疑,但是他一直没有开始学习机器学习。后来他发现这里面最主要的障碍就是自己的心态 -- 认可自己是一个初学者;
  2. 当他开始认真学习机器学习时,发现有很多阻碍,特别是起步特别费劲,这让他想起自己刚学习编程时的状态;
  3. 即使一开始并不自信,他依旧坚持,因为他想看懂其他 OpenAI 的项目;
  4. 比较幸运的是,他的伴侣给了他很大的容错空间;
  5. 另外一点是,他一直在别人的项目上贡献一些改进,而不是从头开始,这样每一点贡献都是对他的激励;
  6. 这样的学习持续了半年之后,他才感到自己掌握了一些机器学习的要点。
  7. 他说其实最重要的就是,允许自己失败,然后从这些失败中学习,最终才能成功。而这段过程其实比你想象得要短。

其实我们之前分享了天勾贾巴尔对于科比的评价,他最佩服科比的一点就是,科比其实是 NBA 史上失手最多的选手,但他的得分却名列前茅。这说明,科比其实是 NBA 史上从失败中爬起来最多的选手。如果科比和 gdb 都能允许自己失败,都能从失败中爬起,你我为什么不能呢?

Daily Productive Sharing 869 - How to Became a Machine Learning Practitioner
One helpful tip per day:) Greg Brockman shared his experience learning machine learning: 1. As the former CTO of Stripe and one of the founders of OpenAI, his programming skills are unquestionable. However, he had been hesitant to start learning machine learning. He later realized that the main obstacle was

Jacob Kaplan-Moss 认为做出有效决策的第一步是达成一个共识:即如何达成这一决策。为此他提出了一个七步的框架:

  1. 记录提议。
  2. 与指导小组分享文档。
  3. 确定利益相关者名单。
  4. 运用上面这一共识。
  5. 反馈和讨论。
  6. 基于先前的共识做出决定。
  7. 开始行动。
Daily Productive Sharing 870 - Making Decisions
One helpful tip per day:) Jacob Kaplan-Moss thinks that to make a sound decision, we need reach an agreement on how to make it, and he proposed a framework: 1. Document the proposal. 2. Share the document with a guiding group 3. The Board and the proposal author identify the

我们已经开通了微信支付和支付宝支付,如果你想及时读到 DPS 的全文,不妨直接付费订阅:

一键使用微信或者支付宝订阅 DPS



Daily Productive Sharing 528 - Three Rare Qualities
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel describes three rare qualities: 1. to empathize with others, even when their views are wrong; 2. to be aggressive and quit while some oppotunities are still on the table; 3. to express oneself succinctly. These three things sound easy, but they are not
Daily Productive Sharing 548 - Big Beliefs
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel shared his big beliefs: 1. The inability to forecast the past has no impact on our desire to forecast the future. 2. No one’s success is proven until they’ve survived a calamity. 3. It takes less effort to increase confidence than
Daily Productive Sharing 572 - Book List by Morgan Housel
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel shared his recent readings. Yes,he wrote a book called The Psychology of Money. If you enjoy today’s sharing, why not subscribe Need a superb CV, please try our CV Consultation Morgan Housel 分享了他近来读到的好书。对了,他写了一本叫做 The Psychology of Money 的书。 如果你喜欢我们的内容,不如支持我们
Daily Productive Sharing 577 - Good Books by Morgan Housel
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel’s recommended book list, which contains several bibliographies. If you enjoy today’s sharing, why not subscribe Need a superb CV, please try our CV Consultation #reading Morgan Housel 推荐的书单,里面有不少传记。 如果你喜欢我们的内容,不如支持我们 :) 需要更棒的简历,不妨试试我们的 CV Consultation 如果你也想成为更高效的人,欢迎加入我们的 TG group Link Good Books Excerpt
Daily Productive Sharing 587 - Cumulative vs. Cyclical Knowledge
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel sees two types of knowledge. 1. cumulative knowledge: usually quantifiable and therefore easily updated, such as medical science. 2. cyclical knowledge: usually acquired through experience, difficult to quantify, and therefore not easily passed on, such as financial knowledge. If you enjoy today’s sharing,
Daily Productive Sharing 596 - How Can Writing Attract Attention?
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel summarizes a few ways that writing attracts attention: 1. get to the point. 2. tell a good story. 3. be simple and easy to understand. 4. teach people to think. 5. relate to the known. If you enjoy today’s sharing, why not subscribe
Daily Productive Sharing 609 - Easy to Get Rich but Hard to Keep
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel analyzes why it is easy to get rich but hard to keep it. 1. the two require different mindsets: getting rich requires embracing risk; keeping rich requires resisting risk; getting rich requires staying optimistic; keeping rich requires staying pessimistic. 2. in the long
Daily Productive Sharing 620 - Ideas That Changed Morgan Housel’s Life
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel shared some truths that have served him well in life. 1. people’s views can be influenced by the tribe they belong to. 2. history keeps repeating itself and the lessons of today are still relevant tomorrow. 3. the nature of many careers is
Daily Productive Sharing 639 - How to Spend Money?
One helpful tip per day:) This comprehensive article introduces Morgan Housel’s view on spending: 1. Your family background and past experiences heavily influences your spending preferences. 2. Entrapped by spending: Rather than using money to build a life, your life is built around money. 3. Frugality inertia: a lifetime of
Daily Productive Sharing 648 - Justifying Optimism
One helpful tip per day:) Although a number of tech giants laid off their employees recently, Morgan Housel is still about optimistic about the future: 1. Most good things happened because of a reaction to a bad thing. 2. The constant human desire to one-up past successes, and the generational
Daily Productive Sharing 658 - Everything You Can’t Have
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel points out that the desire has a hierarchy: * If you don’t want something and don’t have it, you don’t think about it. * If you want something and have it, you might feel OK. * If you want something and don’t
Daily Productive Sharing 688 - Least Resistant Mind
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel identified seven psychological paths of least resistance. In most cases, this is not a problem, but sometimes it can have negative consequences: 1. Quickly eliminate uncertainty and doubt; 2. Use a single cause to explain all complex events 3. Use double standards to
Daily Productive Sharing 710 - What Makes You Happy
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel read the book Endurance and discovered that becoming happy is both simple and difficult: 1. After being rescued, the crew members enjoyed bathing, shaving, eating, and sleeping. Even if the water was lukewarm and the food was half stale, it was one of
Daily Productive Sharing 720 - What Morgan Housel Thinks
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel shared some recent thoughts, and some are insightful: 1. Nothing is more blinding than success caused by luck, because when you succeed without effort it’s easy to think, “I must be naturally talented.” 2. The best measure of wealth is what you
Daily Productive Sharing 741 - No Regret
One helpful tip per day:) Jeff Bezos has a simple framework: If I want to minimize regret when I am 80 years old, what should I do now? Morgan Housel elaborates on this idea: 1. Regret is a form of risk that is often hidden for years or decades, making
Daily Productive Sharing 750 - Compounding Optimism
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel reviewed some technical progress, and pointed out that innovation also has a compounding effect 1. Compound growth, driven by small ideas and inspirations, is difficult to estimate, making all progress easy to underestimate. 2. Progress, especially technological progress, is driven by incremental growth
Daily Productive Sharing 753 - Why Do You Believe?
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel pointed out that people often believe what they want to believe: 1. The more something helps us reduce uncertainty, the less likely we are to question its truthfulness. 2. Often, believing in something is not about pursuing the truth, but only confirming our
Daily Productive Sharing 775 - Luck VS. Risk
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel points out that luck and risk are two sides of the same coin: 1. We dislike risk because it is beyond our control. Similarly, luck can also be attributed to factors beyond our control. 2. However, people have different attitudes towards risk and
Daily Productive Sharing 792 - Lots of Inputs and a Strong Filter
One helpful tip per day:) Morgan Housel shared his reading strategy, which can be summed up as “start many, finish few”: Start Many, Finish Few: He begins by reading many books simultaneously but only the introductory part. Then, he decides whether or not to continue reading to the end. Value
Daily Productive Sharing 803 - Intelligent vs. Smart
One helpful tip per day:) This article by Morgan Housel might be the best one he has ever written, in which he differentiates between intelligence and smartness: 1. In his view, intelligence (Intelligent) is a hard skill, such as having a good memory, logical thinking, and so on. 2. Smartness